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September 07, 2004
Electoral College Analysis
RealClearPolitics.com has a very nice analysis of the electoral college breakdown, and who needs what in order to win the presidency. I haven't really had time to do the math along with RCP, but at first glace it looks very reasonable. It does make the election look like a tossup, though the latest trends have Bush gaining in almost every state (so even the leaning states aren't breaking towards Kerry).
Bush seemed to be making ground even before the convention, taking a 2 point lead in the head-to-head. I'd guess that if the lead were 5 points in the polls, 3 must be attributed to the convention and may slide back some before November. Still, it appears the race is the President's to lose.
Posted by Judd at September 7, 2004 08:47 AM
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